According to the Ukrainian intelligence, Russia’s efforts to expand its Defense Industry Base (DIB) have not met the operational requirements in Ukraine. Vadym Skibitskyi, the deputy major general of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service (GUR), reported to “ISW” that Russia could produce two million rounds of 122mm and 152mm grenades annually, but this led to a deficit of 500,000 grenades in 2023. A similar deficit is expected to persist in 2024. Skibitskyi stated that Russia plans to increase its munitions production, but lacks necessary components, qualified personnel, and production capacity.
Russia’s ammunition deficit
Skibitskyi pointed out that Russia had already procured grenades from Belarus, Iran, and North Korea, and is likely to seek additional grenades from abroad in the future. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj warned that Russia would use any “pause” or ceasefire agreement to stockpile drones, artillery, and rockets to address its material shortage. Selenskyj added that Russia is currently negotiating the acquisition of additional rockets and ammunition from other countries and has already received more than one million grenades from North Korea. Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin confirmed that Russian forces had fired at least one North Korean rocket against Ukraine.
Imports despite sanctions
According to Politico, citing a report from the Kyiv School of Economics and the Yermak-McFaul International Working Group on Russian Sanctions, Russia imported goods and components worth 8.77 billion US dollars for the production of rockets, drones, and other military equipment between January and October 2023, despite Western sanctions. The report noted that the sanctions have strained Russia’s supply chains and led to losses in the production of military aviation and equipment.
Dependency on foreign components
Ukrainian and Western sources report that Russia’s dependence on foreign components has restricted domestic production of aircraft, rockets, and drones. A Russian drone manufacturer alerted President Vladimir Putin that a large percentage of domestically produced electronics, particularly drones, require foreign components. ISW has found that Russia’s current reserves and production rates of rockets and drones likely do not allow the Russian armed forces to conduct large-scale rocket attacks regularly, but would enable more consistent drone attacks. The Russian government is trying to develop domestic substitute products for foreign components to maintain and increase drone and rocket production despite Western sanctions.
