Outwardly accustomedly offensive, cautiously signaling the willingness to ceasefire through intermediaries – this is the approach of New York Times’ report on the current actions of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. The aim is to freeze the current state of war, although Russia would fall far behind its stated war goals.
But is Putin actually willing to be content with around 20 percent of Ukrainian territory? Renowned political scientist Herfried Münkler believes that the reported intentions of the Russian President could be a kind of test. “It could also be a trial balloon to see what happens, where, and with whom if an end to the fighting is promised,” he told FOCUS online.
Expert speculates Putin’s plan: Suddenly “Ukraine would be seen as a warmonger”
In principle, Münkler sees three potential ways to interpret Putin’s signals. The first is the political purpose. “If one assumes that Putin seeks control of the Sea of Azov and a dominant position in the Black Sea, then he could consider a formalization of the current front lines in the form of a ceasefire as a tendentious achievement of the goal.”
Furthermore, he would then have Ukraine in a “military-economic stranglehold” through control of the shipping routes in the Black Sea. The political scientist is convinced that Putin could also enforce a Ukrainian renunciation of NATO membership. “An EU membership would not bother him for the time being, because the damage he has inflicted on Ukraine is sufficient to prevent a prosperity there that would have an impact on the Russian population.”
Another possibility could be the international interpretation: While Russia would be ready for a ceasefire, Ukraine would reject it. “Suddenly, Ukraine would then be seen by parts of the European and American public as a warmonger,” Münkler fears. “The addressee of the information would then be less Ukraine than ‘the West’, and above all those who have considered the war to have lasted long enough and have long been calling for negotiations.”
Gerhard Mangott, a professor of political science with a special focus on international relations and security in the post-Soviet space, also echoes this sentiment and sees an effect on Putin. “The Russian leadership would appear in a better light in the Western public,” he explained to FOCUS online.
Is the West easing up? “Then Putin’s offer would likely be off the table”
But Münkler also directs attention to Ukraine as the true addressees of Putin’s signals. There, “a small group of war-weary people stand against a larger group of those who want to continue the war until all the territories that belonged to Ukraine by early 2014 are liberated,” he says, seeing it as an attempt to “drive a wedge into Ukrainian society and exploit the debates that have begun there, in which Selenskyj has increasingly come under pressure, politically.”
Meanwhile, Mangott points out that Putin’s potential interest in a ceasefire could quickly become history if the situation changes. “If it should indeed be true, this opportunity window will rapidly close,” he speculates, and explains why.
“As long as the Ukrainian
Die Armee könnte sich künftig nur noch in Verteidigungsstellungen verbarrikadieren, jedoch wären die russischen Angriffe abwehrbar, sodass dieses Fenster offen bliebe. Sollte es sich allerdings in den nächsten Wochen herausstellen, dass der Westen nur begrenzt bereit ist, die Ukraine finanziell und militärisch zu unterstützen, würde das Angebot Putins wohl vom Tisch sein.“ In diesem Fall könnte Putin weitere Geländegewinne seiner Truppen erwarten.
Ein Experte erklärt, unter welchen Umständen ein Waffenstillstand für die Ukraine realistischer wäre
Der Faktor Zeit spiele zudem gegen die Ukraine, sagt Mangott. „Je näher die Präsidentenwahlen in den USA kommen, desto mehr könnte Putin auch auf einen Wahlsieg Trumps setzen und würde die Ukraine dann ohne US-Unterstützung noch leichter unter Druck setzen können. Wenn die Gerüchte also stimmen sollten, dann wurde schon viel wertvolle Zeit vertan.“
Die Ukraine hoffe indes auf das Jahr 2024. „Sie setzt auf bessere Voraussetzungen für eine erfolgreiche Offensive im kommenden Frühjahr. Ohne westlichen Druck wird die Ukraine nicht von dieser Linie abweichen.“
Mangott sagt auch, wann ein Waffenstillstand für die Ukraine ein realistischeres Szenario werden könnte. „Ein Einfrieren des Konfliktes müsste verbunden sein mit einer Hochrüstung der Ukraine, damit diese genug an Abschreckungspotential innehat, um zukünftige russische Angriffe unwahrscheinlich zu machen.“
