Gescheitert: Mit diesem Ausdruck charakterisieren etliche westliche Beobachter die ukrainische Gegenoffensive. Die Frontlinie hat bis dato nur minimalen Wandel erfahren und wirkt fast schon reglos.
Nur gelegentlich gelang es der Ukraine, russische Verteidigungslinien zu überwinden. Und obwohl der Kampfgeist nach wie vor stark ist – das Angriffspotenzial der Ukraine ist erschöpft. Das behauptete zumindest der Militärexperte Franz-Stefan Gady nach einem Vor-Ort-Besuch.
Auch in der Ukraine breitet sich Ernüchterung aus. Walerij Saluschnyj, der Oberbefehlshaber der ukrainischen Streitkräfte, äußerte in einem Gastbeitrag für den „Economist“, dass die Offensive gescheitert sei. Ein langer Stellungskrieg stehe bevor.
Dennoch scheint es einen Ausblick zu geben. In einer Fernsehdokumentation kündigte Vasyl Maliuk, der Leiter des ukrainischen Inlandsgeheimdienstes SBU, „Überraschungen“ an. Die Krimbrücke, die über die Meerenge von Kertsch führt, sei „dem Untergang geweiht“.
Kertsch-Brücke hat „große symbolische Relevanz“
Dies wäre ein bedeutender Schritt nach vorne. Denn die Kertsch-Brücke ist keineswegs einfach nur eine Struktur. Sie wurde 2018 abgeschlossen – vier Jahre, nachdem Moskau die Krim annektierte und als russisches Territorium erklärte. Die Brücke verbindet das russische Festland mit der Schwarzmeerhalbinsel.
Außerdem hat die Brücke „eine große symbolische Bedeutung für Russland, da sie für die Widerstandsfähigkeit und die Verbindung zwischen der Krim und dem russischen Festland steht“, sagt Ralph Thiele in einem Gespräch mit FOCUS online. „Das vermittelt Streitkräften und Bevölkerung in unsicheren Zeiten ein Gefühl von Kontinuität und Stabilität.“
Thiele ist Vorsitzender der in Berlin ansässigen „Politisch-Militärischen Gesellschaft“. Zuvor war er unter anderem im Planungsstab des Verteidigungsministers und als Direktor an der Führungsakademie der Bundeswehr tätig.
Kertsch-Brücke bindet Personal und Ausrüstung
„Ein Gefühl von Verletzlichkeit – bis hin in die russische Bevölkerung hinein“
At present, the British Ministry of Defense even speaks of a “security burden” for Moscow. In a corresponding report, it is stated that the Kertsch Bridge not only involves soldiers but also air defense systems. Additionally, the Ukrainians are said to be using great “ingenuity”.
The confidence of the Russian armed forces in their ability to protect this “large and vulnerable structure” is reportedly declining. Defense expert Thiele sees it similarly.
He says: “Ukraine engages significant amounts of Russian military forces on land, air, and sea for the protection of this vital link, conveying a sense of vulnerability and insecurity far into the Russian population.”
Public announcements of further attacks, such as the “sinkage of the Kertsch Bridge”, would exacerbate this feeling. Simultaneously, according to Thiele, such statements are meant to motivate the Ukrainian soldiers. To show them: We are continuing, we are on a good path.
Russia may already be planning an alternative
However, the truth also includes: Moscow is not without alternatives; it can also transport soldiers and weapons to Ukraine by sea. Moreover, there are rumors that Russia is preparing for the destruction of the Kertch Bridge.
According to a report in the “Washington Post”, it has emerged that government-affiliated Russian and Chinese business people have discussed the construction of an underwater tunnel that is intended to connect Russia with Crimea. This could ensure the supply at the front.
Experts in international transportation projects told the “Washington Post” that the construction of a tunnel under the Strait of Kertsch is technically feasible, and China possesses the necessary expertise.
However, such a project would cost several billion dollars and be enormously time-consuming, potentially not being completed in time to make a difference in the Ukraine conflict. Furthermore, the construction site would be located in the midst of the war zone.
Utility of attacks for counteroffensive is “negligible”
Whether Kyiv truly succeeds in destroying the Kertsch Bridge remains to be seen. It is also unclear if Ukraine can achieve what SBU Chief Maliuk meant by “further surprises”.
A successful major attack on the Kertch Bridge could ultimately trigger a military earthquake. Gerhard Mangott, a professor of political science at the University of Innsbruck, considers a “large-scale bombing attack on Kyiv” as a possible reaction.
He describes the summer offensive as a “disaster” in a conversation with FOCUS online but also says: “A weakening of the supply on the Russian side could foster new hope for a military victory for Ukraine.”
Defense expert Thiele ultimately criticizes the “short-sightedness of Western ammunition deliveries”. Because Ukraine is having to defend itself against increasingly fierce Russian attacks.
“We are letting Ukraine bleed on the front line”
Kyiv has just experienced the worst drone attacks since the start of the war of aggression. Simultaneously, resources are running low. Ukraine is dependent on Western support.
And in fact, it should receive it. The EU had promised a million rounds of ammunition in the spring. However, only about a third has been delivered so far. “We are letting Ukraine bleed on the front line,” Thiele believes.
Analyst Franz-Stefan Gady expressed it more cautiously in his video column, which regularly appears in the “Kleine Zeitung”: “New equipment and more ammunition must be provided.”
