Unless the new Bundestag election law is abolished, CSU leader Markus Söder and his party will never enter into a coalition at the federal level again. “CSU’s participation in the government can only occur if the election law changes are reversed. This is a prerequisite for a coalition,” said the Bavarian Minister President to the German Press Agency in Munich.
In the election law dispute, the Union is hopeful for the Constitutional Court
The Union is hoping for a judicial decision on the amendment of the election law in 2024. The traffic light coalitions passed the reform in the summer, despite vehement opposition from the Union. They justified this with the intention of wanting to reduce the size of the Bundestag. With currently 736 members, the Bundestag is the largest freely elected parliament in the world. The new election law now caps the number of seats at 630.
Following the amendment, voting will continue with first and second votes. However, there will no longer be overhang and balancing mandates. For a party’s number of seats, only its second vote result will be decisive in the future. This could result in successful constituency candidates not receiving their direct mandate. The basic mandate clause is also eliminated. Previously, parties were able to enter the Bundestag with the strength of their second vote result, even if they were below the five-percent hurdle but secured at least three direct mandates.
“It would therefore be sensible for the Federal Chancellor to pose the vote of confidence before the public”
Should the CSU therefore fall below the 5 percent threshold in the election, it would no longer be represented in the Bundestag, even if, as in the previous federal election, it wins almost all direct mandates in Bavaria. In order for the ruling to remain relevant for the federal election, the decision should be made as soon as possible in 2024. However, there is currently no timeline known from Karlsruhe.
Söder believes the Union is well positioned for 2024, more united than ever and immediately capable of governing: “We are far ahead in polls and are about as strong as all three traffic light parties combined. The people trust us to solve the country’s problems best.” In contrast, the traffic light coalition is completely divided and no longer capable of keeping its own agreements. “It would therefore be sensible for the Federal Chancellor to pose the vote of confidence before the public.” Söder once again pleaded for early elections on June 9, combined with the European elections.
