In a nationwide representative telephone survey conducted by GMS between 06. and 11.12.2023 with 1001 respondents, the AfD remains the second strongest political force with 22 percent, while The Greens achieve the third largest share of second votes with 15 percent. The SPD (14 percent) now only ranks fourth. Following them are the FDP (five percent) and The Left (two percent), which this time fail even more clearly than before to reach the 5 percent threshold. The other miscellaneous parties, all of which also have no chance of entering the Bundestag, together reach 10 percent (including Free Voters with three percent).
Union can for the first time also benefit from the weakness of the traffic light coalition
Compared to the situation in autumn (September), there have been some significant changes in the ranking and the level of second vote shares. The Union, which initially could not benefit from the weakness of the traffic light coalition, has improved by five percentage points since September and has again clearly distanced itself from the AfD (minus one percentage point). The Greens have not been able to improve their result of 15 percent since September, but now take the third place ahead of the Social Democrats due to the losses of the SPD (minus two percentage points).
For the FDP (minus one percentage point), the failure to reach the five percent threshold is becoming increasingly likely, while The Left (minus two percentage points) can probably no longer expect to return to the Bundestag after the dissolution of its parliamentary group.
Traffic light coalition far from possible majority – several coalitions would be possible
With a further decreased second vote share of only 34 percent in total (minus three percentage points), the traffic light coalition is even further away from a majority in the Bundestag. Currently, arithmetically possible are not only three-party alliances such as Jamaica (52 percent) or Black-Red-Yellow (51 percent), but also again two-party coalitions such as a Grand Coalition (46 percent) or Black-Green (47 percent).
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