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RTL/ntv Trendbarometer: Merz leading significantly in chancellor question – AfD at 23 percent

In the RTL/ntv Trendbarometer, there is currently not much movement. Only through the split of the Wagenknecht group do the percentage ratios move a little. For instance, the Left loses one percentage point in the Trendbarometer and the AfD is able to gain one.

Union almost as strong as the entire traffic light coalition

Thus, the AfD reaches a new high in the Trendbarometer. The other parties remain at the level of the previous week. If the Bundestag were to be elected this week, the parties could expect the following results:

CDU/CSU: 31 percent (Bundestag election in September 2021: 24.1 percent)

AfD: 23 percent (10.3 percent)

SPD: 14 percent (25.7 percent)

Grüne: 13 percent (14.8 percent)

FDP: 5 percent (11.5 percent)

Linke: 3 percent (4.9 percent)

Currently, 11 percent of the voters would decide for other parties.

Merz and Habeck leading ahead of Scholz

Even with the question of which chancellor candidate the respondents would choose, there are only minimal changes compared to the previous week.

If the federal chancellor were to be directly elected, only 15 percent would vote for the incumbent federal chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) if the opposing candidates were Friedrich Merz (CDU) and Robert Habeck (Grüne). Merz could garner 24 percent of the votes, and Habeck would also lead Scholz with 18 percent. 43 percent of the respondents would not decide for any of them.

Frequently asked questions on this topic


New elections are not entirely ruled out, but would have to be initiated by the traffic light coalition parties themselves, for example, similar to Gerhard Schröder’s vote of confidence in 2001 and 2005. The risks for the SPD, FDP, and …

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Andreas Herteux

Economic and social researcher, publicist, and head of the Erich von Werner Society



Momentan könnten insbesondere die Christlich Demokratische Union, die Christlich-Soziale Union und die Alternative für Deutschland von Neuwahlen profitieren. Die CDU hat bereits ihre Strategie angepasst und befindet sich im Modus des Wahlkampfs. Die CSU könnte trotz Herausforderungen von …

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Andreas Herteux

Forscher im Bereich Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, Autor und Leiter der Erich von Werner Gesellschaft


Die Grünen könnten durch Neuwahlen zu einer Organisation reduziert werden, die sich auf ein bestimmtes Thema konzentriert, und die Verantwortung für das Scheitern der Ampel-Koalition tragen. Die FDP steht vor der Herausforderung, ihren …

Bild von Andreas Herteux

Andreas Herteux

Forscher im Bereich Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, Autor und Leiter der Erich von Werner Gesellschaft

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